Championship Sunday

Here we go! It seems like the season just started yesterday, but we are down to Championship Sunday already. I've had a nice streak of picking at least one conference champion in the preseason, and this August I picked Patriots vs. Packers for the Super Bowl. Now, the Pats have a chance to keep my streak alive.
The AFC will get things started at 3pmEST in New England

(2)Baltimore Ravens at (1)New England Patriots- Boy oh boy, here we go! The Ravens may be the most dangerous yet, unpredictable team left in the playoffs. They have a killer rushing game and I don't even have to mention the defense. The Patriots cannot play defense at all, and the Ravens will expose that better than the Broncos did. I know Flacco is no Brady, but with Ray Rice pounding the ball they can set up the play action pass nicely and hit Boldin in stride, if they do...forget about it. I know Brady will be looking to his big TE targets but I've heard the Ravens have a few good Linebackers, maybe you've heard of Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs? I like the Ravens to go to Foxboro and beat the Patriots. Here's a tidbit...not only did Baltimore beat NE already this year BUT the Pats won 13 games and did not beat one team with a winning record. Everyone thinks the 49ers got in by beating easy teams, but its the Patriots who pulled that off and they played an 8-8 team last week. Frankly, the Pats aren't as good as you think they are and I'd be shocked if they won this game. Ravens 31-26 to advance to the Super Bowl.

(4)New York Giants at (2)San Francisco 49ers- For the 8th time in 30 years the Giants and 49ers will face off in the playoffs, and even with the Saints and Packers out early, something just feels right about this. This is like having a Cowboys/Steelers Super Bowl, like a Broncos/Browns AFC title game, these are historic playoff rivals and I love it. Its not Montana, it's not LT, its not Rice, its not Harry Carson but it works. The Giants have the obvious advantage at QB but that SF defense is scary, add to that the weather. Weather Channel says rain in San Fran from Thursday until Sunday night/Monday morning. Advantage 49ers. The cold in Green Bay doesn't bother the Giants but having wet, sloppy grass will. The 9ers can run and they stop the run very well. With those weather conditions you need to be able to run and pound and that is not how NY has been winning. They need the big play down field to win. One thing the Giants have gotten a lot better at is causing turnovers and they will try to punch that ball loose all they can. I think this game will be all defense and be a sloppy game with low scoring. San Francisco 49ers will beat the Giants 23-17 and we will have the Harbaugh Bowl in Indianapolis.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 46.
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Divisional Weekend

Well, we are finally ready for Championship Sunday and I don't think anyone picked the NFC Championship to be in San Fran this year.

I went 2-2 this weekend taking the Saints and Packers but winning both AFC picks.

The NFC gave us two excellent games this weekend. The Giants game turned out to be a blowout but it was a close game for 3 quarters. Until the INT, I thought Green Bay was coming back. If I said the score would be 37-20 you would never believe the Giants would be the victor.
How about those Niners? Showing that they can hang with the Saints in a thrilling 36-32 win. The 49ers beat NY during the season 27-20 in a tight game, I'd expect the same next Sunday.

The AFC will have the Ravens vs. Patriots. I like this to be the better game this weekend. The Ravens have got to get some big offense going against a weak Pats D.

Lots of great possibilities for the Super Bowl..

Giants/Patriots- of course a rematch of 2008's NYG win (plus NY beat NE this season)

Giants/Ravens- rematch of 2000 when Ravens beat down NY 34-7 for title

49ers/Ravens- the Harbaugh brothers duke it out for the first family SB ring

49ers/Patriots- the NFLs best D against the explosive Patriots offense.

I'll save my picks for later in the week, but I'm sure you know who I'm taking to win the NFC.
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Divisional Playoffs

In wild card weekend we lost all the wild card teams. The 5 and 6 teams from each conference are gone, somewhat shockingly (I'm looking at you Pittsburgh).

So, now we have only the 8 division winners left and can get down to Championship Sunday. Let's see how these games break down.

Saturday

(3)New Orleans Saints at (2)San Francisco 49ers- The Saints are a different team at home than on the road, and going into San Fran is going to be a battle for them. Is the saying true? Is it defense that wins championships? The Saints are a turf team, can they air out 35 points on grass, in wind, against a tough Niners D. I really, really want to pick SF but the fact that they don't have a big time QB makes me lean to NO. Harbaugh will have his guys primed and ready to go as the underdog 2 seed, and I see them giving NO hell, maybe even leading as late as the 3rd. Still, I'm taking the Saints. 26-20.

(4)Denver Broncos at (1)New England Patriots- The madness has to end at some point, but will it end with Tebow holding a Lombardi, is the question. The Patriots have struggled in the playoffs the past two years, losing at home to Baltimore and NY Jets past two seasons both at home. The Pats look to get back on track and advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since the 2008 post season when they beat the Jaguars to get to 18-0. Does Tebow really stand in their way? Maybe not, but a stellar defense and running attack does. The Steelers couldn't buy a possession in the second half against Denver. I'm going with the Pats to win in a game a bit closer than when they played four weeks ago. Patriots advance 27-13.

Sunday

(3)Houston Texans at (2)Baltimore Ravens- With the dreaded Raven killers out of the playoffs, Baltimore has a chance to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2000. I like the Ravens to dance with the Packers in Indy this year (I picked Baltimore/Green Bay to be in last year too). I know the Texans looked great last week, but I still don't trust them without a legit QB. They can play defense but the Ravens are a whole different team at home, and with Boldin back they can spread the ball or bash anyone with Ray Rice. Close game, looking for some big plays on defense to be the difference. Ravens 23-14.

(4)New York Giants at (1)Green Bay Packers- Now, I know I haven't been picking the Giants when I want to pick them because I'm a jinx, but this has nothing to do with that. I honestly believe the Packers are going to win. I would love a NY upset but I don't see it happening. I see the Packers coming out fast and attacking downfield from the get-go. Exactly what they did to the Falcons last year. The Giants defense looks like their old selves again, they have played three great games in a row shutting down the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons. The Packers are not the Jets. I can see NY coming back and giving the Pack a hell of a game, but coming up short. I also think the Giants D will make some good plays, they will get pressure and will play extremely physical. In the end, Green Bay is just too much for them, they have 5 targets that can cut the Giants up. Green Bay will not take NY for granted, that is how upsets happen, and the Giants confidence is high right now, which also creates upsets. Going to be a good game, but I'll take Green Bay to host the NFC Championship next week. Green Bay 31-27.

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Wild Card Review

Well, I sucked at picking those games. I should say that I did like NY to win, I just don't pick them anymore. So, with officially taking the Falcons, I went 1-3.

I guess Jesus is back at the helm of the Broncos after taking a few weeks off for his birthday.

The Saints game looked exactly how everyone thought it would. The Lions really hung tough for a while, and I've heard sports analysts saying it was a blowout. It was not, the Saints played an outstanding 4th quarter that made the score look silly. I think the Lions have a bright future.

How about that Giants D? The Falcons offense laid a big goose egg and only the defense could score, on a safety. If I wasn't a Giants fan, and was an outsider I'd look at NY as maybe the team no one wants to face in the playoffs this year.
As far as the Falcons are concerned, they will have a coach in the hot seat next season. Mike Smith made some extremely questionable calls in that game. What was going on in the last minute of the first half? Atlanta could have at least added a field goal but Coach ran off thirty seconds of his own time, then went into the locker room with 2 unused timeouts. Plus the 4th down calls. Silly.


I couldn't be more wrong about the Texans, they didn't need a QB to beat up the Bengals. That defense and that running attack was all they needed, they're gonna need it against the Ravens next week.

So, we have some good games next week. I think the most intriguing is Saints at Niners. San Fran can't rack up points like Orleans, but they can keep Brees off the field with a good clock eating running attack and a very good defense. I'm really liking the Saints to go all the way but this could go either way.

I'll get into those games on Friday.
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Wild Card Weekend

Here we go, the 2011 NFL season is over and it is time to start the 2012 post season. Every team is now 0-0 and anything can happen. I'm sure there will be a big upset, a big blowout and a few crazy back and forth games. Last year we had the 7 win Seahawks upset the Saints and the Packers came out as the 6 seed and rocked the 13 win Falcons en route to a Super Bowl win.

Can the Pack keep it going? They are 15-1 and playing top flight offense, but so are the Saints, who have 13 wins and are a WC team.

This could be a year where defense does not win a championship. Or we could have a Ravens/49ers Super Bowl. Here's a look at Saturdays games.

(6)Cincinnati Bengals at (3)Houston Texans- Two rookie QB's will battle it out, one has had a great season and the other has had to step in for an injured starter. The Texans have a very good defense and can run the ball very well. With Schaub at QB I picked them to win the AFC but without him they don't get past Saturday. The Bengals have shocked everyone by even winning nine games, and the people of Cincy are saying "Carson who?". Andy Dalton has played very well and he has a running game and defense to help him out. A pretty close game in Houston but I like the Bengals to pull it out. This game could come down to who has the ball last. I'm looking for a low scoring. FG heavy game, this game could be 6-6 at halftime. I'm taking the Bengals to advance to New England with a 20-16 win.

(6)Detroit Lions at (3)New Orleans Saints- The Saints may be playing better on offense than the Packers, that's how hot they are right now, especially at home. After being embarrassed in the WC last season, the Saints are gonna be ready to roll against the Lions. Meanwhile, Detriot has looked pretty good on offense too. Stafford has had a great season that has been near unnoticed. The over/under on this game must be near 75, I see a shootout with these two dome teams that throw a lot. I like the Saints defense to make some good stops, and the Saints offense to be near unstoppable. I'm sure the Lions will make a lot of adjustments after letting Matt Flynn tear them apart last week, but still a high scoring game. Saints 38-30 win.

(5)Atlanta Falcons at (4)New York Giants- I must go back to my playoff picks because I'm sure I had this game with these seedings picked. The first time ever the Giants and Falcons have met in the playoffs and the first playoff game ever at MetLife Stadium (all the Jets playoff games were on the road). I like this to be the best game of the weekend. These teams are mirror images of each other, each can rush the passer of the edge, both have a breakout WR (Cruz for NY and Jones for ATL), both have QBs who throw down field with no fear, and both are extremely inconsistent. The one thing the Falcons do way better than NY is run the ball. NY is dead last in rushing, only about 81 yards per game and that number has gone up due to three 100+ yard games in a row, yet their best rusher, Bradshaw only averages about 60 a game. Which Atlanta team will show up? The one that won 13 games last year and got the 1 seed only to be crushed by a team that just barely made the playoffs? To be fair, the Packers did crush everyone last post season...but still.
Which Giants defense will show? The one that let the Redskins move the ball all over the field on them twice this season or the one that shut down the Patriots in Foxboro?
I see a final score of 26-21 and the winner to be the Falcons, because they can run and control the clock, whereas NY cannnot. Also because I am never again picking the Giants to win because when I do, they lose. So, maybe you need to read between the lines but I do a team to win 26-21 and I'll just say that team is....Atlanta.

(5)Pittsburgh Steelers at (4)Denver Broncos- The defending AFC Champs defend their crown on the road against a crappy 8-8 Broncos team that back their way into the playoffs. They lost their last three games and got in because the Raiders did all they could to lose to the Chargers. I'm all for Tebow but I think his time has passed. Defenses have figured him out and if he thinks he's gonna trip up the Steelers offense he better start "Tebowing" now. To be fair, Denver has a good defense and they can be very good at times. Big Ben is limping around and Mendlehall is out, but I don't think Denver puts up anything more than a few FGs which won't be enough to beat the Steelers. I don't see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard but they won't need to. Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Denver Broncos 12.

If these are the winners then next week will be

(6)Cincinnati Bengals at (1)New England Patriots

(5)Atlanta Falcons at (1)Green Bay Packers

(5)Pittsburgh Steelers at (2)Baltimore Ravens

(3)New Orleans Saints at (2)San Francisco 49ers

Just imagine if a certain 4 seed gets the win in a certain game and gets to play a certain 1 seed to try to get payback from a very close game that many think the refs gave to the number 1 team that may have been going for an undefeated season.
Not that I'm taking that certain division winner to win their game, just throwing it out there.
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Black Monday

The St.Louis Rams have parted ways with Steve Spagnolo after only getting 10 wins in 3 years with the Rams. The highly sought defensive coordinator that shut down the Pats in the Giants 17-14 Super Bowl win had a -207 point differential this season and has the NFL's worst run defense. Word is the Rams have contacted Jon Gruden and Jeff Fischer.

The Tampa Bay Bucs have fired Raheem Morris after a 10 game losing streak had the former 9 win team finish with only 4 this year. Another former defensive coordinator who has failed...is Rex next? Well, not this year.

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Week 17 ends

Well, some big things happened in the late games.

3 divisions were won in the late day and night games. The Ravens beat Cinci to clinch the North, the Raiders lost to give the crown to the 8-8 Broncos, and the Giants handled Dallas in the East.

The Bengals got the 6th seed on a loss and I don't know why. For some reason the Broncos or Raiders had to win for the Titans to make the playoffs, my guess is the Bengals got in due to strength of schedule, which is one of the tie breakers but far down the list. The Titans needed one of those teams to win so their opponent records would be one up on Cinci's opponent records.

Anyway, here's Wild Card Weekends games.

(6)Cincinnati Bengals at (3) Houston Texans

(5)Pittsburgh Steelers at (4) Denver Broncos

(6)Detroit Lions at (3) New Orleans Saints

(5)Atlanta Falcons at (4) New York Giants

Haven't really looked into these games yet, but off hand I like the Bengals, Steelers, Saints and Falcons (because I don't pick NY anymore). These picks could change.
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Week 17 updates

The Patriots have locked up the 1 seed in the AFC and the road to Indy will go through Foxboro,MA.

The 49ers are the 2 spot in the NFC. They get a week off and a home game against the highest Wild Card winner (I'm guessing Saints).

The Saints are locked in at 3 and will host the 6 seed next week. Looks like that will be the Lions.

The Falcons are up 28-0 right now and with Detroit losing, Atlanta should be the 5 and go to Dallas or NY next week.

The Titans can lock a playoff spot if the Bengals lose, it is currently 10-3 Ravens.

The Jets are out after losing to the Dolphins.
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